The few days preceding a major holiday have a tendency to be strong for the stock market, so pay close attention to any upside breakouts. Trading will likely be a bit thin this week as many traders are already on vacation. As a result, there could be a little extra volatility Monday or Tuesday, while trading on Wednesday and Friday will likely be very quiet with narrow ranges. Well, that is what history suggests at least!
I just had a chance to read a real estate report I receive annually from PricewaterhouseCoopers called "Emergin Trends in Real Estate." The mood among commercial real estate industry participants is that of doom and gloom, the 2009 forecast is for a sharp decline in commercial property values.
However, as I scan the stock market industry groups for the strongest performers over the last 30 days, the commercial real estate REITS, particularly the retail and hotel variety, are among the top 10 performing industry groups. These stocks have been beaten down considerably since they peaked in early 2007. In fact, at its November lows, the retail REIT sector was down about 80% from its highs. Will the decline in energy prices and interest rates help the commercial real estate market? Maybe not in the near term while jobs are still being lost, but judging from the performance of these stocks, a rebound may be imminent.
Other strong sectors over the last 30 days include residential construction, silver miners, semi-conductors, health care facilities, and casinos. These were also among the big movers on Friday.
Scott Cole
www.bestdaytradingstocks.com
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